"Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will In-fa become a Super Typhoon?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement. We won’t invent a story to fill the space.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
"Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Every market in this event may resolve to "No".
This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be.
"Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be. For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution.
Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.