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- Current leader
- Yes 56%
- Leader 24h
- -2%
- Volume
- n/a
- Liquidity
- 1.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
Yes
56%
-2% 24h
No
45%
+2% 24h
Odds chart
Probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshIK Sirius moved lower from 64.5% to 55.5% (-9.0 points) between 2026-08-15T18:56:05.468Z and 2026-08-16T18:56:05.468Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
No major update has changed the story in 18 days.
Latest update
IK Sirius in IK Sirius vs. BK Hacken market slips: Yes odds 64.5% → 55.5%
IK Sirius moved lower from 64.5% to 55.5% (-9.0 points) between 2026-08-15T18:56:05.468Z and 2026-08-16T18:56:05.468Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "IK Sirius" outcome in "IK Sirius vs. BK Hacken" made a sharp move from 64.5% to 55.5% between 2026-08-15T18:56:05.468Z and 2026-08-16T18:56:05.468Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -9.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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