Next Claude Opus released on...?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
- Current leader
- 0% 0%
- Largest 24h move
- -41.3 pp
- 24h volume
- 152.2K
- Liquidity
- 0
Top candidates
1 outcome
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
0%
-41.3 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation.
Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Read the complete resolution rules
A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website.
Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline