Skip to content
activeWeather+49.9 pp 24h

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26.

View on Polymarket

PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.

Current leader
97.9% 98%
Largest 24h move
+49.9 pp
24h volume
2.5K
Liquidity
626.2

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 6?

98%

+49.9 pp 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg.

C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Read the complete resolution rules

This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above.

The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.

Living timeline · 0 significant updates

See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Story so far

Monitoring

PolySays is monitoring this market.

No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.

Latest update

No updates yet

The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

No timeline entries match the current filters.