LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 20 at 5:00AM ET.
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- Current leader
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon 58%
- Largest 24h move
- Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon +50%
- 24h volume
- 38.8K
- Liquidity
- 440.3K
Top candidates
15 outcomes
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
58%
+1% 24h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
58%
+26% 24h
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
53%
-43% 24h
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
52%
-42% 24h
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill
50%
-42% 24h
Show all outcomes
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill
50%
-40%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
47%
+50%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
41%
-18%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
41%
-17%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
40%
0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
39%
-1%
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill
39%
+2%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill
39%
+12%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill
38%
+12%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill
38%
+13%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 20 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against JD Gaming.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Read the complete resolution rules
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from. However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.
Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.
If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.4%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Limited confidenceOver moved lower from 50.0% to 0.4% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
The latest move is visible, but the public source trail is still thin.
Latest update
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.4%
Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.4% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Over" outcome in "Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?" made a sharp move from 50.0% to 0.4% between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -49.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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