This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
80.5%
81%
11 outcomes
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
0.0 pp
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
0.0 pp
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
+0.1 pp
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
0.0 pp
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
+0.1 pp
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
0.0 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
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Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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