This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026.
Current leader
16%
16%
1 outcome
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.17% in November?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement. We won’t invent a story to fill the space.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see:.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.