Fed Decision in September?
PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
- Current leader
- there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting 68%
- Largest 24h move
- there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting -2%
- 24h volume
- 1.9M
- Liquidity
- 3.3M
Top candidates
5 outcomes
there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
68%
-2% 24h
the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting
31%
+1% 24h
the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting
1%
-0% 24h
the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting
0%
0% 24h
the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting
0%
+0% 24h
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo prior summary existed. Over the past 24 hours, the market for no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting moved higher, with the implied Yes odds rising from 0.385 to 0.445.
No major update has changed the story in 51 days.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Polymarket-reported 24-hour price movement was cited as the direct market signal.
- Reuters and CNBC reported the Fed held rates steady in July, with three policymakers voting for a hike, which may have added hawkish context.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the September 2026 no-change odds rise is a sustained repricing or a short-lived reaction.
- Whether the July hold and dissenting votes are the main driver for this specific market, or only a background influence.
- What new Fed data, commentary, or macro releases might further move expectations before September 2026.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
Keep exploring
Recent market explanations
Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 40% → 29.5%
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
October 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 12.5% → 39.5%
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Guardians extra-innings market surged after Cleveland finished Giants game 5-2
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bitcoin’s Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026 level slips: Yes odds 19.5% → 13.5%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?