Bitcoin above ___ on August 12?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
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- Current leader
- $54,000 on August 12 100%
- Largest 24h move
- $64,000 on August 12 -21%
- 24h volume
- 403.8K
- Liquidity
- 304.6K
Top candidates
11 outcomes
$54,000 on August 12
100%
0% 24h
$56,000 on August 12
100%
0% 24h
$58,000 on August 12
100%
+0% 24h
$60,000 on August 12
100%
+1% 24h
$62,000 on August 12
97%
+2% 24h
Show all outcomes
$64,000 on August 12
33%
-21%
$66,000 on August 12
1%
-5%
$68,000 on August 12
0%
-0%
$70,000 on August 12
0%
-0%
$72,000 on August 12
0%
0%
$74,000 on August 12
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Limited confidencethe price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12 moved lower from 55.5% to 32.5% (-23.0 points) between 2026-08-10T21:00:09.000Z and 2026-08-11T21:48:07.244Z; there...
The latest move is visible, but the public source trail is still thin.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12 moved lower from 55.5% to 32.5% (-23.0 points) between 2026-08-10T21:00:09.000Z and 2026-08-11T21:48:07.244Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12" outcome in "Bitcoin above ___ on August 12?" made a sharp move from 55.5% to 32.5% between 2026-08-10T21:00:09.000Z and 2026-08-11T21:48:07.244Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -23.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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