What will the biggest earthquake be on October 6, 2026?
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 6, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
- Current leader
- 0%Will the biggest earthquake on October 6, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?
- Largest 24h move
- -49.5 pp
- 24h volume
- 1.9K
- Liquidity
- 1.4K
Top candidates
1 outcome
Will the biggest earthquake on October 6, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?
0%
-49.5 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 6, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 6, 2026.
An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
Read the complete resolution rules
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 6, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 7, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
No timeline update availablePolySays is monitoring this market.
A dated timeline update is not available on this page. The chart records prices; a price move alone does not establish its cause.
Latest published update
No dated update available
Use the odds chart and market rules to follow this market. This timeline has no published update available to display.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline