activeSports+43% 24h

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.

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Current leader
Rafael Jodar 100%
Leader 24h
+43%
24h volume
600.7K
Liquidity
375.3K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

Rafael Jodar

100%

+43% 24h

Lorenzo Musetti

0%

-43% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Rafael Jodar.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

Read the complete resolution rules

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 4 significant updates

ATP Tour report on Jodar win in Montreal coincides with sharp repricing toward Jodar

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Up to date

ATP Tour reporting that Rafael Jodar beat Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal appears to have coincided with a fast market repricing. Jodar’s outcome moved from 0.575 to 0.9995 while volume spiked sharply, so the market now looks nearly certain on Jodar advancing.

This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.

Latest update

ATP Tour report on Jodar win in Montreal coincides with sharp repricing toward Jodar

ATP Tour reported Rafael Jodar over Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal and Jodar advancing to round 4. Over the same window, the Rafael Jodar market moved from 0.575 to 0.9995 as liquidity surged, suggesting the market rapidly absorbed the result.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • The draft links the move to ATP Tour reporting that Rafael Jodar beat Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal and advanced to round 4.
  • The new movement shows a large liquidity/volume spike alongside the Rafael Jodar price moving from 0.575 to 0.9995.
  • No additional cause is established in the supplied input.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the reported match result fully explains the near-total repricing.
  • Whether any other market or news developments also contributed.
  • Whether the move reflected confirmed information or a transient price dislocation.

People and institutions to watch

Rafael JodarLorenzo MusettiATP TourMontrealRafael Jodar outcome token 3881381053883670305776792951135235930243648756802207732740495643339691517177Lorenzo Musetti outcome token 104618034310155680907410695278333066696523375944992562796992151725292344642708Yes outcome token 104973563128324478327786495375021282288744460736639826831918678722406109670500

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. ATP Tour reported that Rafael Jodar overcame Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal and advanced to the round of 16/round 4, which is the clearest confirmed catalyst in the supplied sources. During the same window, the Rafael Jodar outcome repriced sharply from 0.575 to 0.9995 while volume expanded materially. That timing is consistent with the market reacting to the match result, though the input does not prove the news alone caused the move. The safest read is that the market moved after confirmed reporting of Jodar’s win, with the outcome price nearly fully resetting once the result became public.

    What changed

    ATP Tour reporting said Rafael Jodar beat Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal and advanced to round 4; over the same period, Jodar’s outcome price jumped from 0.575 to 0.9995 amid a liquidity spike.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official match confirmation details, any correction to the reported result, and whether the market stabilizes near 1.0 or retraces after the news flow settles.

    Sources

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