How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 34%
- Largest 24h move
- between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 +5%
- 24h volume
- 822.6
- Liquidity
- 13.5K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
34%
+5% 24h
between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
31%
+3% 24h
between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
14%
-2% 24h
between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
10%
+0% 24h
20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
4%
+5% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
1%
+1%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 probability of 44%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline