How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 69%
- Largest 24h move
- exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 +8%
- 24h volume
- 14.5
- Liquidity
- 10.9K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
69%
+8% 24h
exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026
23%
+1% 24h
exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
4%
0% 24h
exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
1%
0% 24h
exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
1%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP:, specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" ( as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
Read the complete resolution rules
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g.,, will not be considered.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 probability of 72%.
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Why this matters
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline