Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 84%
- Leader 24h
- +1%
- 24h volume
- 153.2
- Liquidity
- 10.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
84%
+1% 24h
Yes
17%
-1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see:. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”.
Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event ( or while speaking to female astronauts ( would both count.
Read the complete resolution rules
Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.
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Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 83%.
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Why this matters
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Source trail
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Living timeline