Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 92%
- Leader 24h
- +1%
- 24h volume
- 51.5
- Liquidity
- 40.2K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
92%
+1% 24h
Yes
9%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 92%.
Story so far
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There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline