Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 11%
- Largest 24h move
- September 30, 2026 -0%
- 24h volume
- 203.5
- Liquidity
- 12K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
11%
0% 24h
September 30, 2026
5%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line.
Read the complete resolution rules
If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 6%.
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