Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S.
- Current leader
- No 84%
- Leader 24h
- +1%
- 24h volume
- 1.5
- Liquidity
- 9.9K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
84%
+1% 24h
Yes
17%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 90%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline