Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Current leader
- No 79%
- Leader 24h
- -3%
- 24h volume
- 15.2
- Liquidity
- 9.7K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
79%
-3% 24h
Yes
21%
+3% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here:.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
Read the complete resolution rules
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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