Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S.
- Current leader
- No 53%
- Leader 24h
- -1%
- 24h volume
- 35
- Liquidity
- 8.4K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
53%
-1% 24h
Yes
47%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S.
Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count.
Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate.
Read the complete resolution rules
If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 46%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline