Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 95%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 70
- Liquidity
- 8.5K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
95%
0% 24h
Yes
5%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 95%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline