Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round.
- Current leader
- No 84%
- Leader 24h
- -1%
- 24h volume
- 17.9
- Liquidity
- 29.8K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
84%
-1% 24h
Yes
17%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 92%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline