Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 49%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 -9%
- 24h volume
- 0
- Liquidity
- 2.4K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
49%
-9% 24h
June 30, 2026
14%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase.
Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 24%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline