WI-03 House Election Winner
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- Current leader
- the Democratic Party 63%
- Largest 24h move
- the Democratic Party +1%
- 24h volume
- 8.6
- Liquidity
- 1.5K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
the Democratic Party
63%
+1% 24h
the Republican Party
34%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
Read the complete resolution rules
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest the Democratic Party probability of 67%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
the Republican Party moved lower from 48.0% to 33.5% (-14.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:24.847Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:24.847Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "the Republican Party" outcome in "WI-03 House Election Winner" made a sharp move from 48.0% to 33.5% between 2026-06-23T19:22:24.847Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:24.847Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -14.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.