Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- Current leader
- Alexandre Pantoja 38%
- Largest 24h move
- Joshua Van +10%
- 24h volume
- 218.7
- Liquidity
- 6.9K
Top candidates
11 outcomes
Alexandre Pantoja
38%
-9% 24h
Joshua Van
38%
+10% 24h
Manel Kape
29%
-7% 24h
Tatsuro Taira
3%
-1% 24h
Steve Erceg
1%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Amir Albazi
1%
0%
Kyoji Horiguchi
0%
0%
Tim Elliott
0%
-0%
Asu Almabayev
0%
-0%
Brandon Royval
0%
-0%
Brandon Moreno
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Alexandre Pantoja probability of 50%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 21 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Joshua Van moved lower from 48.5% to 37.5% (-11.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.324Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.324Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Joshua Van" outcome in "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" made a sharp move from 48.5% to 37.5% between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.324Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.324Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -11.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.