Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 89%
- Leader 24h
- +0%
- 24h volume
- 13.5
- Liquidity
- 18.2K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
89%
+0% 24h
Yes
11%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 95%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline