US recession by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1.
- Current leader
- No 89%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 1.5K
- Liquidity
- 22.3K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
89%
0% 24h
Yes
12%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Note that advance estimates will be considered.
Read the complete resolution rules
For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 90%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline