U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 32%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 +4%
- 24h volume
- 210.7
- Liquidity
- 18.5K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
32%
+4% 24h
June 30, 2026
2%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Read the complete resolution rules
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 37%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 21.5% to 31.5% (+10.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.796Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026" outcome in "U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?" made a sharp move from 21.5% to 31.5% between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.796Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +10.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.