Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31 13%
- Largest 24h move
- September 30 +1%
- 24h volume
- 13.2
- Liquidity
- 50K
Top candidates
3 outcomes
December 31
13%
0% 24h
September 30
7%
+1% 24h
June 30
1%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.
Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 12%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline