Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
- Current leader
- there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 90%
- Largest 24h move
- the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) -2%
- 24h volume
- 71.4
- Liquidity
- 71.1K
Top candidates
4 outcomes
there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027
90%
0% 24h
the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party)
8%
-1% 24h
the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID)
3%
-2% 24h
the Kulmiye Party (Peace, Unity, and Development Party)
1%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves No
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Read the complete resolution rules
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 probability of 90%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline