Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Current leader
- below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections 31%
- Largest 24h move
- 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections +3%
- 24h volume
- 118
- Liquidity
- 186.3K
Top candidates
10 outcomes
below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
31%
+0% 24h
between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
17%
+1% 24h
between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
14%
0% 24h
between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
9%
0% 24h
between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
8%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
8%
+2%
between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
7%
0%
between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
6%
+0%
between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
4%
0%
230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections
2%
+3%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
Read the complete resolution rules
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections.
If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections probability of 28%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline