Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31 14%
- Largest 24h move
- July 31 +0%
- 24h volume
- 50
- Liquidity
- 38.8K
Top candidates
3 outcomes
December 31
14%
0% 24h
July 31
2%
+0% 24h
June 30
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 12%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 17 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31 moved lower from 42.0% to 6.5% (-35.5 points) between 2026-06-27T00:00:05.641Z and 2026-06-28T00:00:05.641Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31" outcome in "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?" made a sharp move from 42.0% to 6.5% between 2026-06-27T00:00:05.641Z and 2026-06-28T00:00:05.641Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -35.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.