MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- Current leader
- Donavan McKinney 71%
- Largest 24h move
- Donavan McKinney -1%
- 24h volume
- 191
- Liquidity
- 32.6K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
Donavan McKinney
71%
-1% 24h
Shri Thanedar
26%
0% 24h
Shelby Campbell
1%
0% 24h
Nazmul Hassan
1%
0% 24h
Anthony Carbonaro
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Donavan McKinney probability of 82%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Shri Thanedar moved lower from 36.5% to 25.5% (-11.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.202Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Shri Thanedar" outcome in "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" made a sharp move from 36.5% to 25.5% between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.202Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -11.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.