activePoliticsRepublican Senate incumbents not 0% 24h

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

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Current leader
Republican Senate incumbents not 52%
Largest 24h move
Republican Senate incumbents not 0%
24h volume
59.6
Liquidity
33.9K

Top candidates

6 outcomes

Republican Senate incumbents not

52%

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Republican Senate incumbents not

13%

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Republican Senate incumbents

4%

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Republican Senate incumbents not

2%

0% 24h

Republican Senate incumbents not

1%

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Republican Senate incumbents not

1%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

Read the complete resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.

If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

All-incumbents-win GOP Senate primary market drops 3.1 points

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest Republican Senate incumbents not probability of 97%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The market on exactly four Republican Senate incumbents failing to win 2026 nominations has moved sharply lower, with the Yes side falling from 6.8% to 3.7% between June 23 and June 24, 2026.

No major update has changed the story in 20 days.

Latest update

All-incumbents-win GOP Senate primary market drops 3.1 points

The Yes side for Republican Senate incumbents winning all 2026 nominating elections fell from 6.8% to 3.7% over June 23-24, a 3.1-point Polymarket-reported move.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Polymarket-reported 24-hour price movement pushed the Yes side down 3.1 points.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the drop reflects new primary-election information, trading flow, or both is still unclear.
  • Whether this move is isolated to this contract or part of a broader shift in Senate primary markets is unknown.
  • Which specific incumbents, if any, are driving the repricing remains unclear.

People and institutions to watch

Republican Senate incumbents2026 Senate nominationsPolymarket

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Polymarket showed a 24-hour decline in the Yes price for the contract asking whether Republican Senate incumbents will win all their 2026 nominating elections. The move ran from 2026-06-23 18:45:44 UTC to 2026-06-24 18:45:44 UTC, taking the contract from 6.8% to 3.7%, a 3.1-point drop. The supplied source context includes a June 24 Hill item about Senate and House incumbents who have lost primaries, which is relevant background for incumbent-primary risk but does not directly establish why this contract moved. Based on the provided input, the repricing may reflect market attention to incumbent vulnerability, trading flow, or broader changes across related GOP Senate primary contracts; the cause is not confirmed.

    What changed

    The Yes outcome moved down from 0.068 to 0.037 during the supplied 24-hour window, with reported volume after the move at about $2,534.

    What to watch next

    Watch whether new reporting identifies specific vulnerable GOP Senate incumbents, and whether related markets for one, two, or more incumbent losses also reprice.

    Sources