How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Current leader
- between 36 and 39 inclusive 72%
- Largest 24h move
- between 32 and 35 inclusive -1%
- 24h volume
- 63.3
- Liquidity
- 64.8K
Top candidates
7 outcomes
between 36 and 39 inclusive
72%
-1% 24h
between 32 and 35 inclusive
19%
-1% 24h
between 40 and 43 inclusive
6%
-0% 24h
44 or more
6%
-0% 24h
between 24 and 27 inclusive
3%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 28 and 31 inclusive
1%
+0%
fewer than 24
0%
-1%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
Read the complete resolution rules
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 36 and 39 inclusive probability of 56%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
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Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline