How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see:.
- Current leader
- 400-500k people 38%
- Largest 24h move
- 400-500k people +6%
- 24h volume
- 0
- Liquidity
- 116K
Top candidates
10 outcomes
400-500k people
38%
+6% 24h
500-600k people
20%
+0% 24h
300-400k people
20%
+1% 24h
200-300k people
9%
+1% 24h
less than 200k people
2%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
600-700k people
2%
0%
more than 1m people
2%
+1%
700-800k people
1%
0%
800-900k people
1%
-0%
900k-1m people
1%
+0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see:. This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 400-500k people probability of 49%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline