activePoliticsDemocratic Senate incumbents +1% 24h

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

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Current leader
Democratic Senate incumbents 79%
Largest 24h move
Democratic Senate incumbents +1%
24h volume
11.6
Liquidity
16.3K

Top candidates

6 outcomes

Democratic Senate incumbents

79%

+1% 24h

Democratic Senate incumbents not

38%

+0% 24h

Democratic Senate incumbents not

17%

+1% 24h

Democratic Senate incumbents not

14%

+1% 24h

Democratic Senate incumbents not

1%

0% 24h

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Democratic Senate incumbents not

1%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

Read the complete resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.

If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Exactly-three Democratic incumbent upset market drops 13.25 points

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest Democratic Senate incumbents probability of 57%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

No major update has changed the story in 20 days.

Latest update

Exactly-three Democratic incumbent upset market drops 13.25 points

The market for exactly three Democratic Senate incumbents not winning 2026 nominating elections fell from 30.35% to 17.10% over the 24 hours ending June 24.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Polymarket reported a sharp 24-hour move in the “exactly three” outcome for Democratic Senate incumbents not winning their 2026 nominating elections. The Yes price moved from 30.35% to 17.10% between 2026-06-23T18:45:44.931Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:44.931Z, a decline of 13.25 percentage points. The supplied source context points to broader coverage of incumbents losing primaries and Democratic socialist primary wins, but those snippets do not directly establish a cause for this specific Senate-incumbent market move. The most defensible read is that traders appeared to reprice the likelihood of exactly three Democratic Senate incumbent nominating losses lower during the window, while adjacent outcomes remained part of the same event structure.

    What changed

    Yes on exactly three Democratic Senate incumbents not winning their primaries dropped 13.25 points, from 30.35% to 17.10%, over the supplied 24-hour window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for confirmed 2026 Democratic Senate primary filings, retirements, challenger strength, and any direct reporting tied to incumbent renomination risks.

    Sources