Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
- Current leader
- Fernando Dias da Costa 17%
- Largest 24h move
- Honório Augusto Lopes +4%
- 24h volume
- 173.7
- Liquidity
- 85.1K
Top candidates
12 outcomes
Fernando Dias da Costa
17%
-0% 24h
Siga Batista
11%
+3% 24h
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
4%
+0% 24h
Honório Augusto Lopes
3%
+4% 24h
João de Deus Mendes
3%
+3% 24h
Show all outcomes
Baciro Djá
3%
+0%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
3%
+3%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
3%
+2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
+2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
-1%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
1%
-1%
José Mário Vaz
0%
+3%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the complete resolution rules
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Fernando Dias da Costa probability of 6%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Fernando Dias da Costa moved lower from 25.1% to 16.7% (-8.5 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:13.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.513Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Fernando Dias da Costa" outcome in "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" made a sharp move from 25.1% to 16.7% between 2026-06-23T00:00:13.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.513Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -8.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.