FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- Current leader
- Thomas Chalifoux 73%
- Largest 24h move
- Marcus Carter -24%
- 24h volume
- 81.7
- Liquidity
- 37.1K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
Thomas Chalifoux
73%
-3% 24h
Justin Story
10%
0% 24h
Howard Steven Rance
6%
-0% 24h
Jorge Malavet
6%
-1% 24h
Marcus Carter
2%
-24% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Thomas Chalifoux probability of 71%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Howard Steven Rance moved lower from 16.8% to 6.2% (-10.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.214Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.214Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Howard Steven Rance" outcome in "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" made a sharp move from 16.8% to 6.2% between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.214Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.214Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -10.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.