Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price.
- Current leader
- $52 on the final trading day of June 2026 100%
- Largest 24h move
- $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 -56%
- 24h volume
- 4.7K
- Liquidity
- 76.2K
Top candidates
12 outcomes
$52 on the final trading day of June 2026
100%
0% 24h
$50 on the final trading day of June 2026
99%
+0% 24h
$56 on the final trading day of June 2026
99%
0% 24h
$60 on the final trading day of June 2026
98%
-1% 24h
$63 on the final trading day of June 2026
93%
-1% 24h
Show all outcomes
$65 on the final trading day of June 2026
87%
+1%
$55 on the final trading day of June 2026
84%
+0%
$70 on the final trading day of June 2026
63%
-56%
$75 on the final trading day of June 2026
25%
-0%
$80 on the final trading day of June 2026
11%
-0%
$85 on the final trading day of June 2026
4%
-3%
$90 on the final trading day of June 2026
1%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Read the complete resolution rules
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest $52 on the final trading day of June 2026 probability of 100%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe CL over $80 market for the final trading day of June 2026 weakened sharply over the latest 24 hours, with the Yes price falling from 27.5% to 11.0%. The only supplied context is that the NHC did not expect Atlantic tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days, which may be relevant but does not by itself explain the move.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 moved lower from 85.5% to 62.5% (-23.1 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:27.515Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- The supplied source context notes that the NHC said Atlantic tropical cyclone formation was not expected over the next 7 days.
- The odds move was reported by Polymarket as a 16.5 point 24h price change.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the odds drop was driven by broader crude oil fundamentals rather than the NHC update.
- Whether any other market, weather, or geopolitical developments coincided with the 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-24 move.
- Whether trading volume or liquidity changes amplified the price swing.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026" outcome in "Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?" made a sharp move from 85.5% to 62.5% between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:27.515Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -23.1 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.