Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026.
- Current leader
- (LOW) $70 by end of June 80%
- Largest 24h move
- (HIGH) $80 by end of June -1%
- 24h volume
- 372.9K
- Liquidity
- 2M
Top candidates
23 outcomes
(LOW) $70 by end of June
80%
0% 24h
(HIGH) $80 by end of June
11%
-1% 24h
(HIGH) $85 by end of June
3%
-0% 24h
(LOW) $60 by end of June
1%
-0% 24h
(HIGH) $115 by end of June
1%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
(HIGH) $95 by end of June
1%
-0%
(HIGH) $100 by end of June
1%
-0%
(HIGH) $90 by end of June
1%
-0%
(LOW) $55 by end of June
1%
+0%
(HIGH) $110 by end of June
1%
-0%
(HIGH) $105 by end of June
1%
-0%
(LOW) $50 by end of June
0%
-0%
(HIGH) $120 by end of June
0%
0%
(LOW) $52 by end of June
0%
0%
(HIGH) $140 by end of June
0%
0%
(LOW) $47 by end of June
0%
0%
(HIGH) $150 by end of June
0%
0%
(HIGH) $130 by end of June
0%
0%
(HIGH) $175 by end of June
0%
0%
(LOW) $40 by end of June
0%
0%
(LOW) $45 by end of June
0%
0%
(LOW) $35 by end of June
0%
0%
(HIGH) $200 by end of June
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Read the complete resolution rules
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Crude $70 low contract surged as WTI was reported below $70
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest (LOW) $70 by end of June probability of 100%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe CL market moved sharply toward Yes on the question of whether crude oil (CL) would hit a low of $70 by end of June. The Yes price rose from 29.05% on June 23 to 80.35% by June 24, a 51.3-point surge. A matched headline later reported WTI at $69.50, which may have reinforced the move.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Crude $70 low contract surged as WTI was reported below $70
The Yes side for CL touching a low of $70 by end-June rose from 29.05% to 80.35%, a 51.3-point move, between June 23 and June 24. A matched headline later reported WTI at $69.50.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- A matched headline later reported WTI at $69.50, which likely influenced sentiment.
- The CLOB price history showed a strong upward move in Yes over about 24 hours.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the WTI below-$70 report was the main driver or just one reinforcing signal.
- Whether the market will hold near the elevated Yes price through the end of June.
- Whether the reported WTI level maps cleanly onto the market's exact contract wording.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
Polymarket pricing for the contract asking whether NYMEX crude oil futures would hit a low of $70 by the end of June moved sharply higher, from 0.2905 to 0.8035, over the supplied window from 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z to 2026-06-24T19:22:27.512Z. The compact source context includes one matched news item published June 25 via Google News RSS, with a headline saying WTI slipped below $70 to $69.50 while Brent was at $72.50 and Hormuz had reopened. That source is directionally consistent with the market move, but it was published after the supplied odds window, so it should be treated as contextual confirmation of crude trading below the threshold rather than a proven cause of the earlier odds surge.
What changed
Yes odds for the $70 low contract increased from 29.05% to 80.35%, a 51.3-point rise, over the supplied June 23 to June 24 window.
What to watch next
Watch settlement-source clarity for whether CL officially registered the relevant $70 low before the end-of-June deadline, plus any further crude price moves around the threshold.
Sources
- Oil Price Forecast — WTI ($69.50) Slips Below $70, Brent ($72.50) at February Low as Hormuz Reopens — Pre-War Levels in Focus - TradingNEWSsearchrelevance 75%· Google News RSS
Oil Price Forecast — WTI ($69.50) Slips Below $70, Brent ($72.50) at February Low as Hormuz Reopens — Pre-War Levels in Focus TradingNEWS