CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 84%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- Volume
- 72K
- Liquidity
- 4.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
84%
0% 24h
Yes
17%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 87%.
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Why this matters
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Source trail
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Living timeline